An overview of current Melbourne property market conditions and the cost considerations behind building a new home versus buying an established property. This page is general information to help you plan your project – it is not financial advice.
Market update
Melbourne Property Market
The latest available market evidence indicates that Melbourne property prices have softened, but performance differs by suburb, property type and price range.
Melbourne housing market snapshot
Median house price
$928,000
1.3% lower year-on-year
Median unit price
$645,000
0.2% lower year-on-year
REIV reported these median sale prices for August 2026. Monthly median prices can fluctuate with the types of properties sold and should not be treated as a direct measure of every property’s value.
Additional market reporting from September 2026 found that Melbourne dwelling prices fell during the month, while higher interest rates and weaker buyer demand continued to place pressure on prices.
Current conditions may provide more room to negotiate than a strongly rising market, but a falling market does not guarantee a bargain. Buyers still need to assess the property’s condition, location, fair market value, holding costs and long-term suitability.
Market cycles
Is Property Going Up or Down in Value?
Property prices move in cycles rather than rising every year. Changes in interest rates, borrowing capacity, household incomes, supply, demand and investor confidence can all influence prices. For Melbourne, recent data points to a softer market, although the outlook is not uniform across all locations.
Established houses
Some areas may experience price reductions, creating opportunities for buyers who can negotiate and hold the property over the longer term.
Units and apartments
These may offer a lower purchase price, but performance depends on location, building quality, owners corporation costs, supply and buyer demand.
Land and development sites
Their value depends on location, planning controls, usable land, development costs and the demand for the finished product.
Regional property
Some regional areas may perform differently from metropolitan Melbourne, so statewide averages should not be applied to individual properties.
The Real Estate Institute of Victoria’s 2026 market reporting shows that more affordable properties have generally held up better than higher-priced properties in recent market conditions.
Then and now
Was Property Investment Better in the Past, or Is It Better Now?
There is no single period that was best for every investor. The financial outcome depends on when the property was purchased, the price paid, borrowing costs, rental income, expenses and when the property is sold.
2020–2021: Strong price growth
Low interest rates and strong buyer demand supported a significant housing boom. Buyers who purchased before substantial price increases may have benefited from capital growth, although this was not guaranteed across every location.
Rising interest rates reduced borrowing capacity and placed downward pressure on property prices in many markets. Investors with large loans faced greater repayment costs, while some buyers gained opportunities to purchase at lower prices than during the preceding boom.
Market performance varied between locations and property types. The national housing market strengthened during parts of this period, but national growth did not mean every Melbourne property experienced the same result.
Recent Melbourne price data indicates a softer market, with higher borrowing costs affecting affordability. Buyers may have more scope to negotiate, but investment success depends on purchasing at a sensible price and managing ongoing expenses.
Buying during a downturn can be advantageous if the purchase price is reasonable and the property performs well over time. However, waiting for prices to fall further can also mean missing a suitable property, and no one can reliably identify the exact market bottom in advance.
Build vs buy
Is It Better to Build or Buy an Established Property?
There is no universal winner. Building can provide a modern home designed for your needs, while buying an established property may provide a faster, more predictable path to ownership. For investors and developers, the answer depends on the total project cost and the likely value or income generated.
Know the purchase price before committing, subject to contract conditions.
Inspect the existing building and surrounding neighbourhood.
Potentially move in or generate rental income sooner.
Avoid the uncertainty of a new construction programme.
Cost risks
Stamp duty, repairs, renovation expenses, ageing building systems, maintenance and possible compliance upgrades. A building inspection is important before purchase.
Design a property around your requirements and intended use.
Incorporate modern energy-efficiency measures and building systems.
Reduce some near-term maintenance needs compared with an older property.
Potentially create value through a well-designed and well-managed project.
Cost risks
Land costs, construction contracts, site works, professional fees, permits, service connections, interest during construction, delays and cost overruns.
Westpac’s February 2026 comparison of building and buying highlights that the result depends on land availability, location, construction expenses, financing and timeframes.
A common mistake is comparing the price of a vacant block with the price of an established house. These are not equivalent assets. A proper comparison must calculate:
Total building cost =
Land purchase+Construction+Approvals & site works+Professional fees+Finance & holding costs+Contingency
The total cost should then be compared with the price of a similar established property, including its purchase costs, any required renovations and its ongoing maintenance needs.
Construction costs also remain relevant. Cotality’s Cordell Construction Cost Index reported a 2.8% annual increase nationally in construction costs to June 2026, with a 1.0% quarterly increase.
New construction may offer lower initial maintenance and better energy performance, but these benefits do not necessarily compensate for a higher overall project cost.
There is no universally better choice between buying an established property, building a new home or investing in land. Each option should be assessed according to its total cost, location, intended use, ongoing expenses, potential resale value and financial risks.
Building a new property may offer lower initial maintenance costs, improved energy efficiency, modern building systems and a design that better suits the intended use. However, these advantages do not automatically make building the more financially attractive option. The total cost of land, construction, professional fees, approvals, site works, finance and contingencies may exceed the market value of the completed property. Building may not be financially justified if comparable established properties are available for less.
An important distinction is that land value and building value are not the same. An established property may increase in total market value over time, but this does not mean the existing building itself has increased in value. Land may appreciate while the building depreciates due to age, wear, outdated layouts, maintenance requirements or changes in buyer preferences. In some circumstances, most of the increase in the property’s overall value may be attributable to the land rather than the building. However, this is not true of every property: a well-maintained, renovated or architecturally desirable older building may retain or increase its contribution to market value.
For example, consider an older house purchased for $800,000, comprising an estimated land value of $600,000 and a building value of $200,000. Several years later, the land may be worth $750,000 while the building’s contributory value has declined to $150,000. The property’s indicative total value would then be $900,000. Although the property’s overall value has increased by $100,000, the estimated building value has decreased by $50,000. These figures are hypothetical and illustrate the distinction between land appreciation and building depreciation; they are not a valuation of an actual property.
The reverse consideration applies to new construction. The cost of building a property does not necessarily equal its market value once completed. For example, if a buyer spends $450,000 on land and $500,000 on construction, with a further $50,000 in professional fees, site works and other costs, the total project expenditure is $1 million. If comparable completed properties indicate a market value of only $900,000, the project may have an indicative $100,000 shortfall between cost and market value. The difference may be greater or smaller depending on location, design, demand, construction quality and market conditions. This illustrates why development feasibility should be assessed before construction begins, rather than assuming every dollar spent will be recovered upon sale.
For property investors, buyers and developers, the key consideration is therefore not simply whether an asset is old or new, or whether property prices are rising or falling. It is whether the purchase or development represents sound value relative to its total cost, realistic market value, potential income and future expenses.
Property decisions should be supported by independent market evidence, comparable sales, realistic construction estimates and appropriate professional advice. Property values and future returns are uncertain, and neither land appreciation nor recovery of construction costs is guaranteed.
Reference guidance: Australian Property Institute (API), professional valuation standards and resources; Cotality Australia, property market and construction cost research; and the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV), Victorian property market reporting. Actual land and building values should be assessed by a suitably qualified property valuer using relevant market evidence.
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Enstate does not provide financial, investment, lending or valuation advice. The market information and examples on this page are general in nature, are drawn from the third-party sources referenced, and may change without notice. They do not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before purchasing property, committing funds or commencing construction, obtain independent advice from a licensed financial adviser, valuer or other appropriately qualified professional.
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